Arms Trade Treaty: A ray of hope to change the way world fights?
By: Dr. Sanoj Rajan, Associate Director, HPCR, Harvard University*
As around 150 states started negotiating on the final terms of the proposed Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) in New York on 18 March 2013, the expectations from the regulation on the global trade on conventional weapons are keeping high. Started as a movement to find solution to the lethal consequences of the uncontrolled arms trade, the impact of ATT would be multifarious, which could change the lives of millions caught up in violent situations.
It is widely acknowledged that majority of conflicts today are not fought by conventional armies, but by non-state armed groups and private military companies. Furthermore recently the number of groups taking up arms increased on an alarming scale, including branching out of the existing groups. This takes the firearms to very irresponsible and unsafe hands, latest example being the execution of seven foreign workers in Nigeria by a little known group Ansaru which is a splinter group from the better-known group Boko Haram. The stories are not different in other parts of the world too where you see a lot of new groups taking up arms for their own cause. This type of unregulated flow of firearms, easily accessible to armed groups essentially makes the world a dangerous place to live in. This is mindful while looking at the statistics where half a million people perish every year and many more get injured because of the use of conventional firearms. The international trade in arms is estimated to be worth more than 100 million a year. It is interesting to see how ATT, a multinational treaty (if realized) signed and ratified by states, could regulate the acts of non-state actors and thereby change the ways in which the world fights its wars and of course there by protecting the civilians.
ATT and its probable impact
Initially the idea for an international convention regulating trade and transfer of conventional firearms was put forwarded by civil society actors and Nobel Peace laureates as early as 1990’s. In 2006 United Nations General Assembly through its Resolution 61/89 requested views of member states and constituted groups of Governmental experts from 25 states to explore the idea. In 2009 United Nations General Assembly issued Resolution 64/68 calling for convening a conference on the Arms Trade Treaty in 2012, which finally took place in New York, from 2-27 July 2012. The 2012 conference could not come with any effective out come because a small group of countries including US, Russia and China pointed out some technical problems with the text of the draft ATT.
The main objective of the ATT is to regulate the international trade in conventional arms and eradicate their illicit trade, marketing and unauthorized end use. The firearms that are intended to be covered include the conventional ones, which are not covered through other international conventions in place. The firearms in focus would be small arms and light weapons along with other conventional firearms like Battle tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, Large caliber artillery systems, Combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles and missile launchers.
The important provisions of ATT include prohibition of transfer of conventional arms if it violates obligations under the UN Charter and other international agreements. It specifically prohibits if such transfer facilitate commission of Genocide, crimes against humanity or war crimes constituting grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions, including serious violations of the common article 3 of the Geneva Conventions. It also provides for national assessment before export of conventional firearms to determine whether it would contribute to, or undermine peace and security and facilitate a serious violation as mentioned above. State parties involved in the international transfer shall take appropriate measures to prevent diversion of firearms to the illicit markets or for the unauthorized end use.
The importing state parties are also obligated to give relevant information to the exporting states to assist in their national assessments. They have to adopt appropriate measures to prevent the imported conventional arms under the scope of the treaty to reach illicit markets or for unauthorized end use. Every importing country has to collect information and keep record on details of the export/import, transits and trans-shipment and on the end user of the firearm. This information is to be kept up to 10 years. The drafters look forward to minimize loopholes by making all parts of weapons be included in the regulation including ammunition and production equipment. Likewise all transactions has to be included like those by dealers, brokers and those providing technical assistance, training transport, storage, finance and security. All type of transfers i.e., import, export, re-export, temporary transfer and trans Shipment, loans, gifts and aid are to be monitored under the ATT regulation.
Once widely accepted and properly implemented, ATT can prevent unauthorized transfer of conventional firearms to the non-state actors, organized criminal groups and other unauthorized end users. This can make a big difference to the different types of violence occurring across the world, both classified and unclassified armed conflicts. Though many armed groups fight for legitimate causes, members of such groups are untrained and unwary of the nuances of rules of war and hence are not very much concerned about violations. Therefore a regulation and restriction of illicit arms trade would be one of the best ways of controlling these problems faced by the modern world.
Challenges
Though the draft ATT seems conclusive and effective to regulate the firearms flow, it runs a risk of being abated by the states for many reasons.
Resistance from the countries dealing in arms
Just mentioning that the five permanent members of Security Council are the largest arms manufacturers and dealers show how intense the political resistance to ATT is going to be. The big five are joined by Germany, Israel, Italy, Sweden, South Africa, Spain, Belgium and Ukraine in the league of biggest arms exporters. Considering the discouraging stance already taken by China and Russia, on inclusion of binding rules on international human rights, international humanitarian law and socio-economic development in the ATT shows trouble at the outset itself. Though US stance is positive after the Obama administration reversed earlier opposition to the ATT, it still has reservations and is supportive of transferring arms even when there is credible evidence of their potential use for serious violations of human rights. Another point raised by US was against inclusion of ammunition under the scope of the ATT, apprehending it as impractical in terms of implementation.
The other side of the game also has bigwig players in the list; India and Pakistan are among the top three arms importing states with its prominent internal issues with non-state armed groups. This list also includes United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Iraq in the first 20 names. It would be a real challenge to get many of these countries on board of ATT and further internally it would be very difficult to have national assessment as per ATT especially in turbulent areas like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province in Pakistan or in areas with Maoist presence in India.
Proxy wars
Even after the end of cold war many countries still continue proxy war as a part of their foreign policy. The precursors of many of todays armed conflict situations were proxy wars and for sure it is going to haunt ATT from the beginning. All the countries mentioned above, who are stakeholders in conventional firearms trade have had stake in some proxy wars as either active supporters or as targets. So this could be another reason why many countries may resist ATT.
It is interesting that many of the present conflicts are in fact uprisings against oppressive rulers and dictatorial regimes’ and the people are fighting for their legitimate rights. If ATT is strongly implemented the possibility of a third country supporting such legitimate uprising may become difficult and this could also stand in between ATT and its success.
Illegal trade and black market smuggling
Even after the successful implementation of ATT, the illegal transfer of firearms may continue through black market smuggling and illegal trafficking in arms that are mostly beyond the control of states. Like wise the covert government shipments to armed groups supported by them may continue to haunt ATT in its effectiveness.
With all the oppositions from different countries and the so-called shortcomings in the draft, ATT is under negotiation and the whole world is looking forward to March 28 2013 when the conference end in New York, expecting it as a step towards changing the way the world fights, and thereby protecting innocent civilians in such situations.
*NOTE: This article was originally posted in the official blog of Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research, Harvard University. It is being reproduced with the Author’s permission who holds exclusive rights over its use and distribution.
As around 150 states started negotiating on the final terms of the proposed Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) in New York on 18 March 2013, the expectations from the regulation on the global trade on conventional weapons are keeping high. Started as a movement to find solution to the lethal consequences of the uncontrolled arms trade, the impact of ATT would be multifarious, which could change the lives of millions caught up in violent situations.
It is widely acknowledged that majority of conflicts today are not fought by conventional armies, but by non-state armed groups and private military companies. Furthermore recently the number of groups taking up arms increased on an alarming scale, including branching out of the existing groups. This takes the firearms to very irresponsible and unsafe hands, latest example being the execution of seven foreign workers in Nigeria by a little known group Ansaru which is a splinter group from the better-known group Boko Haram. The stories are not different in other parts of the world too where you see a lot of new groups taking up arms for their own cause. This type of unregulated flow of firearms, easily accessible to armed groups essentially makes the world a dangerous place to live in. This is mindful while looking at the statistics where half a million people perish every year and many more get injured because of the use of conventional firearms. The international trade in arms is estimated to be worth more than 100 million a year. It is interesting to see how ATT, a multinational treaty (if realized) signed and ratified by states, could regulate the acts of non-state actors and thereby change the ways in which the world fights its wars and of course there by protecting the civilians.
ATT and its probable impact
Initially the idea for an international convention regulating trade and transfer of conventional firearms was put forwarded by civil society actors and Nobel Peace laureates as early as 1990’s. In 2006 United Nations General Assembly through its Resolution 61/89 requested views of member states and constituted groups of Governmental experts from 25 states to explore the idea. In 2009 United Nations General Assembly issued Resolution 64/68 calling for convening a conference on the Arms Trade Treaty in 2012, which finally took place in New York, from 2-27 July 2012. The 2012 conference could not come with any effective out come because a small group of countries including US, Russia and China pointed out some technical problems with the text of the draft ATT.
The main objective of the ATT is to regulate the international trade in conventional arms and eradicate their illicit trade, marketing and unauthorized end use. The firearms that are intended to be covered include the conventional ones, which are not covered through other international conventions in place. The firearms in focus would be small arms and light weapons along with other conventional firearms like Battle tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, Large caliber artillery systems, Combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles and missile launchers.
The important provisions of ATT include prohibition of transfer of conventional arms if it violates obligations under the UN Charter and other international agreements. It specifically prohibits if such transfer facilitate commission of Genocide, crimes against humanity or war crimes constituting grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions, including serious violations of the common article 3 of the Geneva Conventions. It also provides for national assessment before export of conventional firearms to determine whether it would contribute to, or undermine peace and security and facilitate a serious violation as mentioned above. State parties involved in the international transfer shall take appropriate measures to prevent diversion of firearms to the illicit markets or for the unauthorized end use.
The importing state parties are also obligated to give relevant information to the exporting states to assist in their national assessments. They have to adopt appropriate measures to prevent the imported conventional arms under the scope of the treaty to reach illicit markets or for unauthorized end use. Every importing country has to collect information and keep record on details of the export/import, transits and trans-shipment and on the end user of the firearm. This information is to be kept up to 10 years. The drafters look forward to minimize loopholes by making all parts of weapons be included in the regulation including ammunition and production equipment. Likewise all transactions has to be included like those by dealers, brokers and those providing technical assistance, training transport, storage, finance and security. All type of transfers i.e., import, export, re-export, temporary transfer and trans Shipment, loans, gifts and aid are to be monitored under the ATT regulation.
Once widely accepted and properly implemented, ATT can prevent unauthorized transfer of conventional firearms to the non-state actors, organized criminal groups and other unauthorized end users. This can make a big difference to the different types of violence occurring across the world, both classified and unclassified armed conflicts. Though many armed groups fight for legitimate causes, members of such groups are untrained and unwary of the nuances of rules of war and hence are not very much concerned about violations. Therefore a regulation and restriction of illicit arms trade would be one of the best ways of controlling these problems faced by the modern world.
Challenges
Though the draft ATT seems conclusive and effective to regulate the firearms flow, it runs a risk of being abated by the states for many reasons.
Resistance from the countries dealing in arms
Just mentioning that the five permanent members of Security Council are the largest arms manufacturers and dealers show how intense the political resistance to ATT is going to be. The big five are joined by Germany, Israel, Italy, Sweden, South Africa, Spain, Belgium and Ukraine in the league of biggest arms exporters. Considering the discouraging stance already taken by China and Russia, on inclusion of binding rules on international human rights, international humanitarian law and socio-economic development in the ATT shows trouble at the outset itself. Though US stance is positive after the Obama administration reversed earlier opposition to the ATT, it still has reservations and is supportive of transferring arms even when there is credible evidence of their potential use for serious violations of human rights. Another point raised by US was against inclusion of ammunition under the scope of the ATT, apprehending it as impractical in terms of implementation.
The other side of the game also has bigwig players in the list; India and Pakistan are among the top three arms importing states with its prominent internal issues with non-state armed groups. This list also includes United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Iraq in the first 20 names. It would be a real challenge to get many of these countries on board of ATT and further internally it would be very difficult to have national assessment as per ATT especially in turbulent areas like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province in Pakistan or in areas with Maoist presence in India.
Proxy wars
Even after the end of cold war many countries still continue proxy war as a part of their foreign policy. The precursors of many of todays armed conflict situations were proxy wars and for sure it is going to haunt ATT from the beginning. All the countries mentioned above, who are stakeholders in conventional firearms trade have had stake in some proxy wars as either active supporters or as targets. So this could be another reason why many countries may resist ATT.
It is interesting that many of the present conflicts are in fact uprisings against oppressive rulers and dictatorial regimes’ and the people are fighting for their legitimate rights. If ATT is strongly implemented the possibility of a third country supporting such legitimate uprising may become difficult and this could also stand in between ATT and its success.
Illegal trade and black market smuggling
Even after the successful implementation of ATT, the illegal transfer of firearms may continue through black market smuggling and illegal trafficking in arms that are mostly beyond the control of states. Like wise the covert government shipments to armed groups supported by them may continue to haunt ATT in its effectiveness.
With all the oppositions from different countries and the so-called shortcomings in the draft, ATT is under negotiation and the whole world is looking forward to March 28 2013 when the conference end in New York, expecting it as a step towards changing the way the world fights, and thereby protecting innocent civilians in such situations.
*NOTE: This article was originally posted in the official blog of Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research, Harvard University. It is being reproduced with the Author’s permission who holds exclusive rights over its use and distribution.